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Iran has vowed to exact a ''crushing revenge'' on American forces in retaliation for the killing of Quds commander Qassem Soleimani - leaving the Middle East on the brink of a conflict that could quickly spiral into World War 3.

伊朗誓言要对美军进行“毁灭性的复仇”,以报复美军打死圣城指挥官卡西姆 索莱马尼的行为。这使得中东处于冲突的边缘,冲突可能很快升级为第三次世界大战。

The Iranian National Security Council is currently meeting in Tehran - chaired by Ayatollah Khamenei himself for the first time ever - to consider its response.

大通彩票_[官网首页]伊朗国家安全委员会目前正在德黑兰开会考虑如何应对——这是阿亚图拉 哈梅内伊第一次亲自主持会议。

At their disposal is the world''s 13th most powerful military, a host of militia groups spread across the Middle East, proxy-forces such as Lebanon''s Hezbollah and Yemen''s Houthi rebels, and allies like Syria''s Bashar al-Assad.

世界第13大军事力量、遍布中东的民兵组织、黎巴嫩真主党和也门胡塞反政府武装等代理部队,以及叙利亚的巴沙尔 阿萨德等盟友,随时听命于他们。

Targets in their crosshairs are likely to include US troops and military bases in Iraq and Syria, Israeli forces in the Golan Heights, tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia''s oil infrastructure.

他们的目标可能包括美国在伊拉克和叙利亚的军队和军事基地、戈兰高地的以色列军队、霍尔木兹海峡的油轮以及沙特阿拉伯的石油基础设施。



The US, China, Russia and Israel all have nuclear weapons - with at least three of those possessing next-generation hypersonic missiles capable of breaching all defense systems.

美国、中国、俄罗斯和以色列都拥有核武器,其中至少有3个国家拥有能够突破所有防御系统的下一代高超音速导弹。

Israel is also armed with nuclear weapons and is an obvious target for any Iranian attacks, but Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF will not hesitate to defend themselves and have recently struck Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in Syria.

以色列也拥有核武器,而且它是伊朗攻击的明显目标,但本杰明 内塔尼亚胡和以色列国防军会毫不犹豫地自卫,他们最近还打击了伊朗支持的叙利亚真主党武装。

If Iran decides to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, as it has often threatened to do in the past, a host of world powers including European nations which rely on the oil which flows through the waterway could find themselves having to defend their interests.

大通彩票_[官网首页]如果伊朗决定封锁霍尔木兹海峡,就像它过去经常威胁要做的那样,许多世界大国,包括依赖石油的欧洲国家,可能会发现自己不得不捍卫自己的利益。

Ultimately, if the tit-for-tat exchanges between these countries escalated far enough it is conceivable but unlikely that it would end with a nuclear exchange - and destruction on a global scale.

最终,如果这些国家之间的针锋相对升级到一定程度,就有可能(但不太可能)以一场核战以及全球范围的破坏告终。



(Iran is considering its options against America in retaliation for the killing of Quds commander Qassem Soleimeni in Baghdad. The conflict could quickly spiral out of control, dragging in other world powers including Russia, Turkey and China)

(伊朗正在考虑对美国采取行动,以报复美国在巴格达打死圣城指挥官索莱马尼。这场冲突可能很快失去控制,牵扯到俄罗斯、土耳其和中国等世界大国。)

Country by country, here is how the conflict could play out:

逐个国家来看,以下是冲突可能的结果:

IRAN

伊朗

The country has an army which is thought to number around half a million active servicemen, along with a population of some 82million from which to draw reserves.

据信,伊朗有50万现役军人,另外还有8200万的人口可从中提取预备役军人。

At the military''s disposal is an arsenal of ballistic missiles, tanks, attack helicopters, fast jets and gunboats.

军方可以动用弹道导弹、坦克、武装直升机、快速喷气机和炮艇。

While Iranian forces are unlikely to be involved in initial fighting, if the situation escalates then they could be dragged into a ground war with the US.

尽管伊朗军队不太可能参与最初的战斗,但如果局势升级,他们可能会被拖入与美国的地面战争。

In the event that US forces are deployed into Iran itself, the country''s biggest asset is geography: Surrounded on three sides by mountains, a fourth by ocean, and with a vast desert at its center, it poses a formidable obstacle - even for the US Army.

大通彩票_[官网首页]一旦美军被部署到伊朗境内,该国最大的优势就是其地理位置:三面环山,四面环海,中部是广袤的沙漠,这就构成了一个巨大的障碍——即使对美军来说也是如此。



Targets would likely include Iranian nuclear facilities - which were successfully targeted with the Stuxnet virus in the past - communications equipment, radar, power networks and other key infrastructure.

目标可能包括伊朗的核设施——过去曾被Stuxnet病毒成功瞄准过——通信设备、雷达、电力网络和其它关键基础设施。

To nullify the threat of American drones, Iran could use anti-aircraft missiles to shoot them down, as it did in June last year.

大通彩票_[官网首页]为了消除美国无人机的威胁,伊朗可以使用防空导弹击落它们,就像去年6月那样。

Iranian missiles could also be trained on US warships around the Arabian Peninsula, including the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, but this would be an extreme option and likely only taken after a ground invasion.

伊朗的导弹也可以用来打击在阿拉伯半岛周围的美国军舰上,包括林肯航母战斗群,但这将是一个极端的选择,可能只有在地面入侵后才会采取。

China also has ships stationed in the Gulf of Oman and recently carried out joint exercises with Iran and Russia, potentially dragging them into any conflict at sea.

中国还在阿曼湾部署了军舰,最近还与伊朗和俄罗斯举行了联合军演,有可能将它们拖入任何海上冲突。

IRAQ

伊拉克

There are some 5,000 US troops currently stationed around Iraq, with more on the way, all of whom are now targets for Shia militias which have fought for Iran - and in some cases directly with Soleimani - in the past.

目前约有5000名美军驻扎在伊拉克各地,还有更多的美军在路上,他们现在都是什叶派民兵的目标,这些民兵过去曾为伊朗作战,在某些情况下还直接与索莱马尼一同作战。

The embassy in Baghdad, which has been the target of attacks in recent days, is likely to see renewed action, while military patrols and bases could be hit by ground troops and IEDs - Soleimani''s weapon of choice against US forces during the 2003 invasion.

巴格达的大使馆最近几天一直是袭击的目标,可能会看到新的行动,而军事巡逻和基地可能会被地面部队和简易爆炸装置袭击,在2003年的入侵中,索莱马尼曾用简易爆炸装置来对付美军。



(The US embassy in Baghdad, which has been attacked by pro-Iran militias in recent days, is likely to come under renewed attack along with other US bases and some 5,000 troops stationed in the region)

(美国驻巴格达大使馆近日来遭到亲伊朗民兵的袭击,该处可能会与其他美军基地以及驻扎在该地区的约5000名士兵一起再次遭到袭击。)

Missile attacks of the kind which killed a US military contractor last week, sparking the escalation that ended in Soleimani''s death, are also likely.

上周导致一名美国军事承包商丧生的那种导弹袭击,最终导致索莱马尼死亡的事件,也有可能再次发生。

The Quds Force, which Solemani controlled for almost two decades, will orchestrate the attacks from behind the scenes and may become directly involved in order to avenge their beloved leader''s death.

索莱马尼控制了将近20年的圣城部队将从幕后策划这些袭击,并可能直接参与其中,为他们敬爱的领袖报仇。

In the past, questions have been raised over whether Quds Forces operate independently of the regime in Tehran, raising the prospect of attacks even if not directly ordered by Tehran.

过去曾有人质疑圣城部队是否独立于德黑兰政权而行动,这增加了袭击的可能性,即使不是德黑兰直接下令。

SYRIA

叙利亚

Bashar al-Assad is a close ally of Iran, and owes the continued existence of his regime in large part to the personal intervention of Soleimani, who helped him turn the tide of Syria''s years-long civil war along with Russia.

巴沙尔 阿萨德是伊朗的亲密盟友,他的政权得以继续存在,在很大程度上要归功于索莱马尼的个人干预,索莱马尼同俄罗斯帮助他扭转了叙利亚多年内战的局势。

While Assad is not likely to be involved in fighting directly, he could be persuaded to turn a blind eye to attacks by pro-Iran militias against several hundred US troops and Kurds remaining in the country after Donald Trump ordered a withdrawal.

尽管阿萨德不太可能直接参与战斗,但在唐纳德 特朗普下令撤军后,他可能会被说服,对亲伊朗民兵针对留在叙利亚的数百名美军和库尔德人的攻击睁一只眼闭一只眼。

Iran has also spent time establishing its own military infrastructure in Iran, complete with missile bases which Israel has previously said could be used against its territory.

伊朗还花时间在伊朗建立了自己的军事基础设施,包括导弹基地。以色列此前曾表示,这些导弹基地可能会被用来打击以色列领土。



(Russia has ground forces stationed in Syria defending a key Iranian ally in Bashar al-Assad, who in large part owes the continued existence of his regime to Soleimeni who organised his forces during the country''s civil war)

(俄罗斯在叙利亚部署了地面部队,以保护伊朗在巴沙尔 阿萨德政权中的一个关键盟友。大通彩票_[官网首页]阿萨德政权的存续,在很大程度上要归功于在叙利亚内战期间组织军队的索莱马尼)。



(Russia''s latest S400 anti-aircraft systems in Syria, which could be used against American jets and bombers in the event the crisis spirals into a wider war)

(俄罗斯在叙利亚部署了最新的S400防空系统,一旦危机升级为更大范围的战争,该系统可以用来对付美国的喷气式飞机和轰炸机)

If Tehran decides to strike the staunch US ally, then the hammer will likely fall on the embattled Golan Heights region, though Tel Aviv has warned that Iranian missiles can range much further across its borders.

如果伊朗决定打击美国的坚定盟友,那么重击可能落在四面楚歌的戈兰高地地区,尽管特拉维夫警告称,伊朗导弹的射程可以越过其边境远得多

If fighting escalates here, then Russian forces stationed across the country could quickly become embroiled, along with Turkish forces currently deployed in the north.

如果这里的战斗升级,那么驻扎在全国各地的俄罗斯军队可能很快就会卷入其中,连同目前部署在北部的土耳其军队。

ISIS will also likely exploit the situation to try and pit the sides against each-other, allowing them to seize back territory they lost in recent years.

ISIS还可能利用这一形势,试图让各方互相对立,从而夺回近年来失去的领土。

LEBANON

黎巴嫩



Another key US ally in the region, Riyadh has seen attacks against its oil infrastructure in recent months which were blamed on Tehran.

美国在该地区的另一个重要盟友,近几个月来,利雅得的石油基础设施遭到攻击,人们将其归咎于德黑兰。

Iran could choose to harass, disable or destroy oil tankers sailing in the Persian Gulf which separates it from the Arabia Peninsula, potentially disrupting a key source of income for the Saudis.

伊朗可能选择骚扰、破坏或摧毁在波斯湾航行的油轮,这可能会扰乱沙特的一个重要收入来源。波斯湾是伊朗与阿拉伯半岛的分界线。



(Saudi oil infrastructure is likely to feature in Iran''s plans for strikes in the region, following on from major disruption caused after a drone and missile attack on the country''s largest oil refinery last year)

(沙特阿拉伯的石油基础设施可能成为伊朗在该地区发动袭击的计划的一部分。去年,伊朗最大的炼油厂遭到无人机和导弹袭击,造成重大破坏。)

Tehran could also attempt a repeat of the audacious attack which knocked out the country''s oil facilities in the summer, though security was massively ramped up afterwards, making success far from a sure thing.

德黑兰还可能试图重演今年夏天那场摧毁该国石油设施的大胆袭击,尽管袭击之后安全措施大幅加强,但成功阻拦的可能性仍很渺茫。

One of the most extreme option available to Iran would be closing the Strait of Hormuz completely, cutting off a fifth of the world''s daily oil supply.

对伊朗来说,最极端的选择之一是完全关闭霍尔木兹海峡,切断世界五分之一的每日石油供应。

While Tehran has often threatened to close the waterway, such a move would almost certainly prompt a response from US carrier groups in the region as well as dragging in other world powers who rely on the oil.

尽管伊朗经常威胁要关闭这条航道,但此举几乎肯定会促使美国在该地区的航母战斗群做出回应,并把依赖石油的其他世界大国拉进来。

YEMEN

也门

Iran has been fighting a proxy-war in Yemen using Houthi rebels, fighting against Saudi forces which are allied to the ruling regime.

伊朗一直在也门使用胡塞反政府武装进行代理人战争,同与执政政权结盟的沙特军队作战。

Attacks against the Saudis could increase, and Iran could use Houthi drones and guided missiles to launch attacks against pipelines in Saudi Arabia and other infrastructure as it has done in the past.

针对沙特的袭击可能会增加,伊朗可能会像过去那样,使用胡塞(Houthi)无人机和导弹对沙特的输油管道和其他基础设施发动袭击。

AFGHANISTAN

阿富汗

The US has just reached a ceasefire agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan in an attempt to put an end to the longest war it has ever fought.

美国刚刚与阿富汗塔利班达成停火协议,试图结束其有史以来持续时间最长的战争。

But, as in Iraq and Syria, Iran has lixs with Shia militias across the region which it could leverage in an attempt to derail the process and plunge the region back into conflict, further extending US engagement there.

但与在伊拉克和叙利亚一样,伊朗与该地区各地的什叶派民兵组织有联系,它可以利用这些联系,试图破坏这一进程,使该地区重新陷入冲突,进一步扩大美国在该地区的交战。

QATAR

卡塔尔

The country houses the largest American military base in the Middle East, at Al Udeid, which is home to some 10,000 troops and dozens of fighters and bombers including F-22 fighters and B-52 bombers.

美国在中东地区最大的军事基地位于乌代德,那里驻扎着大约1万名士兵,以及数十架战斗机和轰炸机,包括F-22战斗机和B-52轰炸机。

If all-out war breaks out with Iran, then Al Udeid will be at the center of efforts to establish air superiority, and as such will also be a major target for Iran and its allies.

如果与伊朗爆发全面战争,那么乌代德将是建立空中优势的中心,因此也将是伊朗及其盟友的主要目标。



(Al Udeid air base (pictured during Ivanka Trump''s visit) in Qatar will be at the center of US efforts to establish air superiority in the event of a wider war. There are dozens of aircraft at the base, including F-22 fighters and B-52 bombers)

(在伊万卡·特朗普访问卡塔尔期间拍摄的乌代德空军基地,将成为美国在更大范围战争中建立空中优势的努力中心。基地有数十架飞机,包括F-22战斗机和B-52轰炸机)

HOW U.S. COULD BIT BACK

美国要怎样反击

The United States has a vast array of military hardware in the Middle East and Persian Gulf. Among the military options are F22 Raptor fighters based in Dubai, cruise missile-armed Ohio class submarines and aircraft carriers and US Special Forces who are still based in northern Iraq and Syria.

美国在中东和波斯湾拥有大量军事装备。美国的军事选择包括:驻扎在迪拜的F22猛禽战斗机、配备巡航导弹的俄亥俄级潜艇和航空母舰,以及仍驻扎在伊拉克和叙利亚北部的美国特种部队。

Strategic assets such as B2 Stealth bombers can also strike by flying over from the US mainland, and - in the ultimate event - America can also field nuclear weapons fired from silos on the mainland at virtually anywhere in the world.

像B2隐形轰炸机这样的战略资源也可以从美国本土起飞,从伊朗上空飞过进行打击,而且——在最终的事件中——美国还可以将核武器从发射井发射到世界上几乎任何地方。

HOW RUSSIA COULD BE DRAGGED IN

俄罗斯将怎样被牵扯进来



Its special forces are also among the most feared in the world, and stationed across the region.

它的特种部队也是世界上最可怕的,并且驻扎在整个地区。